30 Ekim 2012 Salı

Forecasting the ozone concentrations

Forecasting the ozone concentrations with WRF and artificial neural network based system

Department of Climatology and Atmosphere Protection
Wrocław University, Poland


Ground level ozone (O3 ) has serious adverse impacts on human health and ecosystems. Accurate tools that support human and ecosystem protection are necessary. The most often used are complex atmospheric chemistry models (Vieno et al. 2010), driven by off-line meteorology or integrated on-line to allow for two directional effects of atmospheric chemistry and meteorology. These tools need a significant amount of computational effort, but are able to provide information on spatial and
temporal information on atmospheric ozone concentrations. Statistical methods, including regression models and artificial neural networks (ANN) are also often applied to provide information on spatial (Pfeiffer et al. 2009) and temporal variability of O . ANN were also found to be useful for O 3 3
forecasting, and were applied to e.g. metropolitan areas by local environmental or health agencies (Comrie 1997, Corani 2005, Ibarra-Berastegi et al. 2008, Yi and Prybutok 1996). In this paper we present the preliminary results of the O3 forecasting system for the city of Wrocław, SW Poland. Two main tools are used to estimate the hourly O3 for the next 3 and 24 hours – the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale meteorological model and an artificial neural network (ANN). WRF provides the meteorological variables for the next 3 and 24 hours, and the ANN is then applied to forecast the O3 concentrations.

FannTool ;

 The analysis was performed with
the Fast Artificial Neural Network library and FANN Tool 1.1 interface.

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